AGENDA | D1 Nov 7
FINAL | [V3.8] UPDATED SATURDAY OCT 29 8:22 AM CST
VIEW DAY 2 ( Nov. 8 ) AGENDA HERE
There is also a special meeting of the Residential Special Servicers Coalition from 5 pm on Sunday.
| END OF DAY ONE | ||
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| 7:45-8:15 am | MORNING COFFEE | |
| 1.0 | 8:15-8:30 am | THE BIG PICTURE | The impact of globalization on housing finance: An introduction to AmeriCatalyst 2010 by Toni Moss and Todd Groome |
| Since 2002, our event discussions have monitored the trajectory and impact of globalization on housing finance, as well the globalization of housing finance. One of our main themes and greatest concerns has been the accelerated drive toward convergence, which we define as a universal state of intensified social, political and economic interconnectedness blurring the boundaries between domestic matters and global affairs. We see this convergence phenomenon in our own industry through increased accountability and risk not only from our own actions, but from the actions of others. Today, the world has reached that stage of convergence, as evidenced by the limits of U.S. and European national monetary policies in containing the spread of national (and inter-national) economic crises to prevent a profound global financial crisis. We now face risks that are entirely unique and unprecedented, with no historical compass upon which to rely and which renders all policy and actions from this point forward as grand social experiments of trial and error with entirely unknown consequences. As our industry struggles to comply with, cooperate, and compromise on our own internal issues, we see first-hand the difficulties of managing the complexities of a world very different than the one we knew even five years ago. Current events demand global cooperation and compromise among nations with short histories of experience in economic crisis diplomacy. In opening comments, Toni Moss and Todd Groome provide an overview of this year’s event, and outline a framework for thinking about how this stage of convergence changes the landscape of the housing finance industry which, in turn, necessitates a change in how we think about our interaction and strategy, and how this convergence will impact the immediate and near future. | ||
| RECOMMENDED READING | The BBC Reith Lectures 1999, “Runaway World”, Professor Anthony Giddens | |
| 1.1 | 8:30-9:30 am | CONVERGENCE | Fait / Fate accompli? |
| On Sept. 22, World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned that the global economy is “in a danger zone,” while his IMF counterpart, Christine Lagarde, stated, “downside risks” are high. On the same day, PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian was more blunt, warning, “The world is on the eve of the next financial crisis, with sovereign debt its epicenter.” On Sept. 29, the cover of The Economist magazine simply read, “Be afraid,” in direct reference to the slow-motion nature of the unfolding global economic disaster. In addition to different forms of government support, over the past 20 years more than fifty percent of the U.S. housing finance industry has been funded from abroad. This fact requires a dramatic change in thinking about how the industry will be funded in the future. In this session we discuss the current state of the European crisis, the direction of cash flows and investment moving around the world, and the impact that this movement has on fixed income investments in global housing markets, including covered bonds and MBS. We also address the politicization of finance and a world in which politicians make financial decisions, financiers make political decisions, and how that shapes the global regulatory environment. | ||
| HOST | Toni Moss, Founder and CEO, AmeriCatalyst LLC and EuroCatalyst BV | |
| CO-HOST | Tim Skeet, Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets, Royal Bank of Scotland | |
| PANELISTS | Todd Groome, Chairman, Alternative Investment Management Association, and Advisor, AmeriCatalyst LLC | |
| Jeb Mason Managing Director, The Cypress Group | ||
| Paul Miller, Managing Director and Group Head of Financial Services Research, FBR Capital Markets | ||
| Josh Rosner, Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Company and co-author, Reckless Endangerment: How outsized ambition, greed and corruption led to economic Armageddon |
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| RECOMMENDED READING | * 2011 | Reckless Endangerment, How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led To Economic Armageddon, Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner (New York: Times Books) * 2010 | ECONned, How Unenlightened Self Interest Damaged Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan) * 2011-07-07 | “Lessons From the Crisis”, Neil Barofsky, Huffington Post * 2011-10-18 | “Prize announced for painless euro death plan”, by Kiran Stacey, Financial Times * 2011-05-18 | “Eurozone debt crisis jargon-buster”, by David Oakley, Financial Times * 2010-03-30 | “The $100 billion question”, Comments by Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, Bank of England, at the Institute of Regulation & Risk, Hong Kong |
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| 9:30-9:45 am | COMFORT BREAK | |
| 1.2 | 9:45-10:45 am | COME UNDONE | Kyle Bass Redux |
| For the past two years our opening agenda has focused on the potential for sovereign default in G20 nations in onstage conversations with J. Kyle Bass, founder and principle of Hayman Capital Management, LP. For several years, Bass has warned that a global secular change – powerful, long-term directional moves that happen once every hundred years – is underway. Make that 50 years. Maybe 20 years. Okay, kind of often . . . Until recently, Kyle’s perspective has run contrary to that of most investment managers, whose investment decisions assume that current events mark a cyclical, or short-term change. While Bass’ predictions and investments focus on Japan as one of the major nations poised to fall, recent events point to the default of Greece as the initial trigger of a domino effect of default among the most highly indebted nations, which could lead to the end of the fiat currency system. Following Greece, immediately under threat are Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. This year picks up where we left off last year, as we move closer to what appears be the beginning of a global financial crisis of epic proportions. Often, where there is chaos, there is a profitable opportunity. In this session Bass discusses the potential timing, order, and magnitude of sovereign default, and how he is investing ahead of the curve. |
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| GUEST | J. Kyle Bass, Founder and Principle, Hayman Capital Management | |
| HOST | Todd Groome, Chairman, Alternative Investment Management Association, and Advisor, AmeriCatalyst LLC | |
| CO-HOST | Toni Moss, Founder and CEO, AmeriCatalyst LLC and EuroCatalyst BV | |
| RECOMMENDED READING | * “Meet the Texan investor who made millions from the credit crunch…and he now stands to make 65,000% profit if Europe goes down the drain”, The Daily Mail Online, October 3, 2011 * Boomerang: The Meltdown Tour, Michael Lewis, 2011 * “The Cognitive Dissonance of it All”, Kyle Bass, Letter to Shareholders, February 14, 2011 (The pdf can be downloaded from this site) * “Hedge Fund Best Ideas: Kyle Bass, Dan Loeb, Leon Cooperman, Phil Falcone”, the Delivering Alpha Conference, September 14, 2011: Kyle’s video portion begins at 3:04 and ends at 12:41. * “Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, A Conversation with Kyle Bass” hosted by Toni Moss and Todd Groome, AmeriCatalyst 2010 in Austin, Texas * July 27, 2011 | “Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think”, Bloomberg Businessweek * “The Global Debt Bomb”, Forbes.com, Daniel Fisher, January 21, 2010 * “University of Texas Endowment Holds $1 Billion Gold, 5% of its Portfolio”, Forbes, Robert Lenzer, April 17, 2011 * This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Follies, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009, Princeton University Press * “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis”, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, NBER Working Paper No. 15795, March, 2010 * June 23, 2010 | Interactive graphic, “Sovereign debt levels by country”, Financial Times * 2000-10-03 | “Life After Debt”, Second Interagency Draft, U.S. White House Draft |
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| 10:45-11:15 am | REFRESHMENT AND RECOVERY BREAK | |
| 1.3 | 11:15 am-12:30 pm | ENTROPY | The State of the U.S. Housing Market |
| Somewhere, a clock is ticking. The longer it takes to stabilize housing markets, the less likely the economy will recover; yet many of the fundamental problems of the housing market remain unaddressed. While there are pockets of optimism and improvement, unresolved legacy assets continue to increase consumer skepticism, hinder intermediaries’ balance sheets and prevent finding a bottom to the real estate market. This session provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the US housing market and an analysis of problematic areas that are being addressed vs. those that need further action and attention to move the market forward. | ||
| HOST | Toni Moss, Founder and CEO, AmeriCatalyst LLC and EuroCatalyst BV | |
| CO-HOST | Ivy Zelman, CEO, Zelman and Associates | |
| PANELISTS | Ben Graboske, SVP, Product and Technology, CoreLogic | |
| Ted Jones, SVP, Chief Economist, Stewart Title Guaranty Company | ||
| Paul Miller, Managing Director and Group Head of Financial Services Research, FBR Capital Markets | ||
| Brett Nicholas, Chief Operating Officer and EVP, Redwood Trust | ||
| Josh Rosner, Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Company and co-author, Reckless Endangerment: How outsized ambition, greed and corruption led to economic Armageddon |
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| David Stevens, President and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association | ||
| RECOMMENDED READING | * July 28, 2011, SIGTARP “Quarterly Report to Congress”, Section 2, Homeowners Support Programs (pages 51 to 75). Editor’s note: The best overview of government homeowner support programs and their progress (or lack thereof). * AmeriCatalyst webinar “Great Debates in Housing Finance” with Laurie Goodman, Mark Fleming and Paul Miller, “Diving Into the Wreck: Sizing the problem and calculating the costs of foreclosure” (archived webcast, presentation slides and recommended reading) |
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| 12:30-1:30 pm | BUFFET LUNCH IN HILL COUNTRY DINING ROOM | |
| 1.4 | 1:30-2:45 pm | WHO’S GOT THE POWER | Navigating the Regulatory and Political Landscape |
| Amid the looming threat of global sovereign default, the epic dysfunction in Washington could not come at a worse time. World leaders have been stunned by the negative tenor of public discourse as the American political landscape becomes increasingly polarized. Regulators are equally impacted by the dysfunction. Lacking clarity on their roles and jurisdiction, enduring frequent key personnel changes, and made increasingly redundant due to the convergence of and increased competition from peer regulatory institutions for the power to impact change. Given the fragile state of global economics and geopolitics, the importance of housing finance to the economy and the continuing downward spiral of its trajectory, we naturally ask ourselves, “Who’s calling the shots?” This session seeks to answer that question, discussing the current landscape of regulatory oversight in Washington, identifying private and government initiatives intended to provide wide-scale remedies for the housing market, and analyzing the commercial impact of regulation intended to mitigate risk in the future. The session ends with a discussion on how the void in industrywide leadership is finally being filled. | ||
| HOST | Faith Schwartz Executive Director, HOPE NOW, and President, Housing Finance Strategies, LLC | |
| CO-HOST | Jeb Mason Managing Director, The Cypress Group | |
| PANELISTS | Jo Ann Barefoot Co-Chair, Treliant Risk Advisors | |
| Todd Groome, Chairman, Alternative Investment Management Association, and Advisor, AmeriCatalyst LLC | ||
| Adam Levitin, Professor of Law, Georgetown University | ||
| Dan Magder, Director, Lone Star Funds | ||
| Tim Rood, Partner and Managing Director, The Colingwood Group | ||
| David Stevens, President and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association | ||
| RECOMMENDED READING | * August 29, 2011: “Big Banks Shift Campaign Cash Away from Obama in 2012”, American Banker | |
| 2:45-3:00 pm | COMFORT BREAK | |
| 1.5 | 3:00-4:45 pm | FOUR ACES AND A WILD CARD | Four ideas to move the industry forward |
| spite the state of entropy in the housing market, leaders within the industry have emerged with innovative ideas and comprehensive plans to move the market forward. This session features four “Aces” in the industry who present their best ideas, with interactive discussion between the panel and audience on their practicality and viability for adoption and implementation. The “Wild Card”, as always, are the decisions made by government officials in adopting proposed plans for implementation. That said, we strongly anticipate that one of the proposals, in addition to a hybrid of another in this session, are highly favored by the current administration, and likely to be announced in mid-November. Alan Boyce presents what has come to be known as the “Boyce/Hubbard/Mayer Plan”, which proposes a streamlined refinancing program that could potentially benefit up to 30 million borrowers with government-backed mortgages, resulting in possible savings of $70 billion a year in lower mortgage payments. Laurie Goodman discusses her views on the best way for government to structure increased investor participation in the market through supply side measures (increasing the success of mortgage modifications through principal reductions) and meeting housing demand by allowing investors to purchase REOs and turn them into rental properties. Jim Lockhart outlines a plan for distressed “short sales” of notes out of MBS issues or more specifically, to permit the short sale of the note itself out of an MBS trust to a new investor. His solution requires minor amendments to PSAs and modest support from Treasury. Andrew Davidson presents a hybrid private-public residential loan securitization market by proposing a government guarantee with private capital support and three forms of credit enhancement. |
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| HOST | Toni Moss, Founder and CEO, AmeriCatalyst LLC and EuroCatalyst BV | |
| CO-HOST | Sean Dobson, CEO, Amherst Securities Group, LP |
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| PANELISTS | Alan Boyce, CEO, AbsalonProject | |
| Andrew Davidson, President, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. | ||
| Laurie Goodman, Senior Managing Director, Amherst Securities Group, LP | ||
| James Lockhart, III Vice Chairman, WL Ross & Co. | ||
| RECOMMENDED READING | * 2011-02 | “Reforming America’s Housing Finance Market: A Report to Congress,” The U.S. Department of Treasury and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development September 17, 2011, “Steven Pearlstein: How about Refi.gov?”, The Washington Post BY ALAN BOYCE * October 10, 2011, “Changes to Loan Limits, the Return of Private Capital and the Future of the Secondary Mortgage Market”, Presentation by Alan Boyce at the MBA’s 98th Convention, Chicago * September 1, 2011, “Streamlined Refinancings For Up To 30 Million Borrowers”, Alan Boyce, Glenn Hubbard, and Chris Mayer * August 25, 2011, “Now is the Time to Consider Widespread Refinancing”, Housing and the Financial Crisis Page, The Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School * August 22, 2011, “It’s time to fix the U.S. Mortgage Market”, Presentation by Alan Boyce |
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| 4:45-5:00 pm | COMFORT BREAK | |
| 1.6 | 5:00-6:15 pm | CHAMPAGNE DEBATE | A CHANGE OF HEARTH: Homeownership vs. Rental Housing Policy and the Fate of the REO inventory |
 Champagne Debate sponsored by Stewart Lender Services. | If old habits die hard, the transformation of national ideology dies even harder. In the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930s, homeownership became a pillar of economic security promised by “the American Dream”. Since that time the US government has implemented serial policies and programs designed to incent Americans to own their own home, including the Housing Act of 1949, the Fair Housing Act (1968) and the National Affordable Housing Act of 1990. As a measure of success, homeownership rates rose from 44% in 1940 (HUD figures) to as high as a seasonally adjusted 69% in the fourth quarter of 2004 (US Census Bureau). However, the implications of the ongoing crisis have seriously challenged the traditional rationales and ideology of homeownership as a fundamental aspect of the American Dream. Over the past two years, increasing demands for a national rental housing policy finally gained traction in Washington in 2010 with a groundbreaking conference supported by the White House and the Departments of HUD, Treasury and Agriculture. On Aug. 10 of this year, FHFA issued a public Request for Information to solicit ideas for sales, joint ventures or other strategies to augment or enhance the current and future disposition of REO properties, including their transition to rental housing. While the public dialogue moves toward balance between homeownership and rental policies, the debate over the definition, models, incentives and implementation of rental policy has only just begun. | |
| HOST | Toni Moss, Founder and CEO, AmeriCatalyst LLC and EuroCatalyst BV | |
| CO-HOST | Amy Brandt, CEO, Vantium Capital, Inc | |
| PANELISTS | Paul Hayman Founder and President, TenantAccess | |
| David Reedy SVP of Trading, Ranieri Partners Management LLC | ||
| Mike Simonsen, Co-founder and CEO, Altos Research | ||
| Tim Skeet, Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets, Royal Bank of Scotland | ||
| Mark Willis, Resident Research Fellow, the Furman Center for Real Estate & Urban Policy, New York University | ||
| Ivy Zelman, CEO, Zelman and Associates | ||
| 6:15-8:00 p, | EVENING RECEPTION IN WILDFLOWER ATRIUM | Hosted by Butler & Hosch, P.A. | |
 Reception hosted by Butler & Hosch, P.A. | All AmeriCatalyst 2011 delegates are invited to relax after a long day of rigorous sessions at a reception in the Wildflower Atrium hosted by Butler & Hosch. We thank Bob Hosch for recognizing the need for delegates to regroup before heading off for evening dinners and study sessions. The Wildflower Atrium is easy to find: Simply walk out of the main session room. |
View draft agenda for Day 2 Nov. 8
NOTE: An invitation email sent Sept 21 contained an error. Please be advised that GNMA was inaccurately associated with complimentary passes for fixed-income investors. Fixed-income investors may attend the event as AmeriCatalyst guests, and should contact Toni Moss or Shirley Jackson for details. Thank you.